Degrees In Incompetence

The Stae is in denial.'Incompetence the problem,not ....sanctions,' by Samson Hamandishe, on newzimbabwe.com, offers a clear eyed view on Zimbabwe's sanction situation.

Samson Hamandishe highlights the heavy sanctions imposed on Cuba, Venezuela and Iran that have seen these countrys generate economic growth and relative stability. This is in stark contrast to Zimbabwe's continual decline since 1980.

Rhodesia(pre-independent Zimbabwe) was sanctioned and grew its industry. Even before sanctions, between 1980-1989, Zimbabwe's industry was rapidly declining. Sanctions cannot be blamed for this continual de-industrialisation, the cause of decline is poor policy and incompetent policy implementation.

Blame Games

Zanu PF has conceded defeat, already, with regard to employment creation. Since 1980, unemployment (in the formal sector) has crept up from 7% to 95% today. At election time, Zanu PF  promised to create 2 million jobs in the next five years. Zanu PF has now declared these jobs will not be forthcoming as the result of sanctions.

Ian Smith governed under international sanction and still created jobs. This was achieved by preserving industry. Since independence, Zanu PF has commandeered the destruction of industry. Year after year has brought one excuse after another.

Year after year, lofty economic blueprints are presented to no avail. Each economic plan and blueprint brings with it further economic decline. Before blueprints are implemented, Zanu PF is ready to blame this or that for repeated failures. About time the revolutionary party took some responsibility and delivered at least some semblance of democracy, thus allowing Zimbabweans the opportunity to compete and prosper.

Bread Alone

People shun religious concepts. In the beginning of modern classical economic theory, morality was the foundation of economic edict. Economics and morality are two sides of the same coin. Economics came from the study of moral economy.

Here in Zimbabwe corruption rules. Being corrupt, and or corrupted, is indicative of immorality. The indispensable correlation between economy and moral state works both ways. Morality facilitates honesty in government and business, inducing a better economy.

You cannot live on bread alone. The economy cannot function well with just farms, machines, workers, factories and inputs. Human character defines the nature of outputs. Criminal tendencies in state and wider society diminish wealth created.

Morality has infinite degrees. Immorality also has its different levels. When the politician, and or businessman, sends stolen/swindled money abroad the economy contracts. This is the worst sort of corruption as it destroys jobs and future productivity. A lesser corrupt individual might keep money within and use it for productive purposes, this is not as bad. Money can be sent abroad through tax havens or the purchase of expensive imported luxury items. At another degree; when proceeds of corruption fuel speculation in financial assets, and or property, this is worse than using proceeds to create jobs and a sustainable economy.

Rand above Ten

 QE gives then takes away. Problems of 2008/09-Global economic decline still haunt currency markets. The Fed Reserve promised months ago: cheap money for Too Big Too Fail Banks was coming to an end. In response, financial investors with access to these funds are taking funds out of South Africa and other developing countries.

South Africa, India, Malaysia, Brazil plus Argentina (SIMBA) have taken the biggest equity market and currency declines. Only South Africa has resisted trying to resolve a situation that is in the hands of the market. Some emerging counties are frantically trying to stop currency decline, at no avail.

SIMBA countries have trade deficits. Currency decline should reduce imports and improve exports. Unfortunately; strike action in industry, inflation, uncertainty and increasing fuel import costs will negate the potential impact of devaluation. Rand is now trading above 10 to the dollar. For SIMBA countries, currency volatility will persist until the QE situation is remedied.

The Big Man’s house

Respect universal law. “You cannot enter a strong man’s house and take his belongings, until you tie him up”-Mark 3:27. 

Zimbabwe’s elections continually prove this gem from scripture. MDCs will not succeed until they disempower Zanu PF.

Zanu PF is a strongman: controlling; media, security, army, courts, diamond revenues, Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, voter’s roll and the voting process therefore, MDCs stood no chance. Zanu power multiplies, as MDC does absolutely nothing to limit Zanu PF’s capacity. ZAPU, ZANU Ndonga and ZUM all suffered the same fate.

Zimbabwe’s decayed industry is toughest. Zanu’s economic performance, over 33 years, shows they are heavily mismatched. Just like MDC , Zanu PF   fails to tie up their economic opponent. Just like MDC, when it comes to the economy, Zanu PF is making its own fight impossible to win.

Zimbabwe continues to wait for smart people who can out outplay these two  opponents.

False revolutions

The MDCs dodged a bullet. Zimbabwe’s economy is a minefield. Zimbabweans had unrealistically high economic expectations for MDC T, had it won the election. Like The Moslem Brotherhood and Egypt, had MDC T failed to deliver  jobs, unrest would have ensued.

Imagine 2016, had MDC T won., Zanu agitators and crony security elements would have created havoc. An army with Zanu would have recaptured Zimbabwe. Just like Egypt today, they would be a state of emergency and fighting in the streets. That is not so, Zanu sits on the throne of Zimbabwean economic failure. They are lording over a social time-bomb.

Egypt has released Mubarak. The elected, Morsi, has been detained. Given the security forces had power and Morsi had no leverage over the army, secret police and police, Morsi's removal  was predetermined. MDCs have no leverage over Zimbabwe's military-security complex, economic challenges would have left them exposed. Watching The Muslim Brotherhood dodging bullets helps all people realise they was no revolution in Egypt.

3 Fronts Of Chimurenga 3

Zanu talk of a ‘Third Chimurenga’. This new battle is the Zimbabwean economic and agrarian revolution. However, only Zanu can define the terms of the Third Chimurenga. Only the connected, to Zanu, and Zanu bigwigs are living on milk and honey. The people live in poverty which has been worsened by 33 years of Zanu’s economic misleadership. The Zimbabwean is excluded from open political discourse and the free vote by a repressive state. Apart from hunger and being muzzled, the security forces are bent on using violence to repress dissent.

Chimurenga 1 and 2 were bloody affairs. Tragically all the gains from these two struggles have been negated by state sponsored repression. The vote won after Chimurenga 2 is gone. Repressive institutions from Chimurenga 1 are back, and the new oppressor is african. Chimurenga 3 has become a three pronged attack against the people. The weapons are the state, security force and repressive institutions. Worst of all, economic reform is not won by Chimurenga style etiquette.