Rand above Ten

 QE gives then takes away. Problems of 2008/09-Global economic decline still haunt currency markets. The Fed Reserve promised months ago: cheap money for Too Big Too Fail Banks was coming to an end. In response, financial investors with access to these funds are taking funds out of South Africa and other developing countries.

South Africa, India, Malaysia, Brazil plus Argentina (SIMBA) have taken the biggest equity market and currency declines. Only South Africa has resisted trying to resolve a situation that is in the hands of the market. Some emerging counties are frantically trying to stop currency decline, at no avail.

SIMBA countries have trade deficits. Currency decline should reduce imports and improve exports. Unfortunately; strike action in industry, inflation, uncertainty and increasing fuel import costs will negate the potential impact of devaluation. Rand is now trading above 10 to the dollar. For SIMBA countries, currency volatility will persist until the QE situation is remedied.

The Big Man’s house

Respect universal law. “You cannot enter a strong man’s house and take his belongings, until you tie him up”-Mark 3:27. 

Zimbabwe’s elections continually prove this gem from scripture. MDCs will not succeed until they disempower Zanu PF.

Zanu PF is a strongman: controlling; media, security, army, courts, diamond revenues, Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, voter’s roll and the voting process therefore, MDCs stood no chance. Zanu power multiplies, as MDC does absolutely nothing to limit Zanu PF’s capacity. ZAPU, ZANU Ndonga and ZUM all suffered the same fate.

Zimbabwe’s decayed industry is toughest. Zanu’s economic performance, over 33 years, shows they are heavily mismatched. Just like MDC , Zanu PF   fails to tie up their economic opponent. Just like MDC, when it comes to the economy, Zanu PF is making its own fight impossible to win.

Zimbabwe continues to wait for smart people who can out outplay these two  opponents.

False revolutions

The MDCs dodged a bullet. Zimbabwe’s economy is a minefield. Zimbabweans had unrealistically high economic expectations for MDC T, had it won the election. Like The Moslem Brotherhood and Egypt, had MDC T failed to deliver  jobs, unrest would have ensued.

Imagine 2016, had MDC T won., Zanu agitators and crony security elements would have created havoc. An army with Zanu would have recaptured Zimbabwe. Just like Egypt today, they would be a state of emergency and fighting in the streets. That is not so, Zanu sits on the throne of Zimbabwean economic failure. They are lording over a social time-bomb.

Egypt has released Mubarak. The elected, Morsi, has been detained. Given the security forces had power and Morsi had no leverage over the army, secret police and police, Morsi's removal  was predetermined. MDCs have no leverage over Zimbabwe's military-security complex, economic challenges would have left them exposed. Watching The Muslim Brotherhood dodging bullets helps all people realise they was no revolution in Egypt.

3 Fronts Of Chimurenga 3

Zanu talk of a ‘Third Chimurenga’. This new battle is the Zimbabwean economic and agrarian revolution. However, only Zanu can define the terms of the Third Chimurenga. Only the connected, to Zanu, and Zanu bigwigs are living on milk and honey. The people live in poverty which has been worsened by 33 years of Zanu’s economic misleadership. The Zimbabwean is excluded from open political discourse and the free vote by a repressive state. Apart from hunger and being muzzled, the security forces are bent on using violence to repress dissent.

Chimurenga 1 and 2 were bloody affairs. Tragically all the gains from these two struggles have been negated by state sponsored repression. The vote won after Chimurenga 2 is gone. Repressive institutions from Chimurenga 1 are back, and the new oppressor is african. Chimurenga 3 has become a three pronged attack against the people. The weapons are the state, security force and repressive institutions. Worst of all, economic reform is not won by Chimurenga style etiquette.

False Revolutions

Chimurenga is limited. Zanu, ‘the revolutionary party’, lacks the capacity to transform Zimbabwe’s creaking economy. Revolutionary struggle does not entail blaming third parties for all your problems.  Chimurenga had its time, now is time for progress and the people.

Revolution starts within. Victory is a testament of inward change. Dynamics of revolutionary evolution apply to both the people and organisations. Zanu fails to evolve as it sticks to old methodologies, and limited, plus nonexistent self- examination.

Zimbabwe stares at impending economic collapse. Continual repression inherited from colonialism has become Zanu’s national management strategy. Zanu has hijacked the whole state personal to ensure Zanu’s survival. Progress and the people of Zimbabwe are first casualties of Zanu style economic mismanagement. ‘Only Zanu must survive’ or ‘pamberi neZanu’, is the calling card of one party’s  self preservation agenda. Zimbabwe's development has been confined to the back-burner, for the next 5 years only Zanu matters. All economic indicators will continue a downward spiral.

New Zim wine in old bottles

The old guard still rules. Centralized power would have remained intact, whichever way the elections went. This old system cannot accept that which is progressive.

Old wine skins can't hold new wine. Luke 5, the parable of the wine skins, indicates change will always come. When progressive forces withdraw, then other elements are forced to take up the struggle for human right.

New wine destroys old skins. The destruction of old by new is the universal ordering of nature. Zimbabwe's institutional need for progressive change has become the essential ingredient for its economic development. This will only occur when the new guard replaces the old.

Politics over economics

The Zimbabwean economy is cornered again.  Economists have identified unemployment and the desire to further indigenise as serious challenges. The ruling elite see indigenisation as the solution to the employment problem.

 Zanu is hyping up indigenisation. This is the second time Zimbabwe has embarked on  risky economic strategy. Land re-distribution was done to win elections. Indigenisation shows Zanu has its eyes on the next elections.

Zanu is an efficient political machine. However, development needs less politics and more reliable economic planning. Since Growth with Equity, Zanu has had politics at the center of its economic planning. This is the nation’s central economic problem. Political objectives, and getting the vote, are driving economic policy. The end result is more unemployment and further de-industrialisation.

Counting The Cost

Development has a price. Luke 14:28, tells the parable of a builder wanting to construct a tower, before starting the project the contractor ensures all costs and contingencies are taken into consideration.

What is the price of dictatorsip? Underdevelopment is one and poverty is another. Talk of a returning Zimbabwe dollar is being encouraged in nationalist circles. This will only signal the return of inflation.

Dictatorship stifles the majority. Ideas are muzzled and one party cannot encourage diverse ideas. Zimbabwe has no industry, this is the nation's Achilles's heel. Bringing back the Zim dollar, without productive capacity to boot, will push the country ten years back. Indigenisation of the service industry, foreign banks being the main target, will initiate the final collapse of Zimbabwe's economy. When banking indigenisation is completed, be warned, The Zim dollar, with many zeroes, is coming back.